As the Daily Mail reports, dealers were speculating that GSK may face an approach from Roche of Switzerland or Johnson & Johnson of the US at about 1900p per share, valuing it at more than £92billion. In common with rivals, GSK has faced pressure from the strong pound and a need to develop new drugs as existing treatments face copy-cat competition.
The shares fell 22p to 1351p
by the close of trading on Monday, down from 1642p a share in mid-April. A
market source said: ‘People are hovering because of the vulnerability of the
group at this price.’ They're also hovering because pharma M&A is
still going gangbusters, even after a spate of large deals that included Actavis' buyout
of branded drugmaker Allergan and Glaxo's own asset swap with Novartis.
The logic for a J&J or Roche bid? Perhaps
not as strong as the case for a Pfizer buyout. True, J&J could add Glaxo's
joint venture with Novartis on consumer health to its own sizable OTC-drug
and consumer-products business. But J&J isn't into vaccines, and its
prescription drug business lacks a respiratory segment, which is GSK's major
pharma concern these days. Maybe J&J would like to be in those fields? Hmm.
Maybe.
As for Roche, the Swiss drugmaker has never shown much inclination for diversifying into consumer health--or into anything much besides diagnostics, for that matter. While its crosstown rival Novartis moved into eye care, over-the-counter drugs, vaccines and more, Roche stuck to its prescription drug focus; even its diagnostics unit feeds into drug development, what with biomarker R&D and companion diagnostic tests for its targeted treatments. Roche's big buy over the last few years was Genentech--about as focused as Roche could get, given that it owned a big chunk of the company already. Since then, it has inked one biotech deal after another, including its $8.3 billion deal for InterMune last year.
As for Roche, the Swiss drugmaker has never shown much inclination for diversifying into consumer health--or into anything much besides diagnostics, for that matter. While its crosstown rival Novartis moved into eye care, over-the-counter drugs, vaccines and more, Roche stuck to its prescription drug focus; even its diagnostics unit feeds into drug development, what with biomarker R&D and companion diagnostic tests for its targeted treatments. Roche's big buy over the last few years was Genentech--about as focused as Roche could get, given that it owned a big chunk of the company already. Since then, it has inked one biotech deal after another, including its $8.3 billion deal for InterMune last year.
Any bid for
GSK would represent the latest attempt at sector consolidation following last
year’s failed effort by US giant Pfizer to take out UK rival AstraZeneca.
For GSK shareholders, a megamerger may just be
wishful thinking.
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