Pfizer’s nine-year reign at the top has been driven by sales of its
anti-cholesterol drug Lipitor, which made $13.4 billion in peak annual sales.
But Lipitor will go off patent in the US this month and in Europe early
next year – a process that will shrink revenue from the drug to just $2 billion
a year by 2016.
Sanofi is now expected to take its place at the top, followed by Novartis,
Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline, according to industry analysts at EvaluatePharma.
Sanofi strength
EvaluatePharma (EP) are projecting annual sales growth of 4% over the next
four years for Sanofi, meaning the French firm will be capable of holding
on to the top spot.
EP says the strength for Sanofi is the culmination of a decade of
mega-mergers starting with the 1999 acquisition of Synthélabo in a deal
worth around $30 billion, and later its $63 billion deal with Aventis in
2004.
The $20 billion takeover of Genzyme earlier this year has cemented its future success, and EP believes
that sales of its new biotech’s enzyme replacement therapies should be enough
to keep Sanofi at the top of the table until at least 2016.
Genzyme’s drugs will also help offset the loss of revenues from its
anticoagulant Plavix, which loses US patent protection next year, and ongoing
generic erosion of anticoagulant Lovenox and chemotherapy Taxotere.
Novartis will also
remain firmly in second place for the coming years based on the predicted
strength of its MS pill Gilenya and blood cancer treatment Tasigna - these should be enough to help offset
the loss of by blood pressure drug Diovan, which has been bringing in over $6
billion in peak annual sales.
Its recent $48 billion acquisition of eye specialist Alcon will also help the group’s top-line sales outside of drug products,
illustrating the strength of diversification for the firm.
Merck to struggle
Merck, which is currently in fourth position, will drop to sixth next year.
Despite buying Schering-Plough for $41 billion in 2009, the US firm
will struggle to expand its drugs business over the next four years, according
to EP, letting faster growing companies GlaxoSmithKline and Roche climb
ahead.
Teva reaches
top 10
A notable entrant to the top ten next year will be the Israeli generics
drug maker Teva, which is predicted to post strong 7% annual sales growth over
the period with both its generic and branded drug segments expanding.
This has been achieved largely through an aggressive acquisition policy
that has seen the company make five multi-billion dollar deals in the last
seven years, including its recent $6.5 billion purchase of US biopharmaceutical
firm Cephalon.
|
Firm
|
Rank: 2011
|
2012
|
2014
|
2016
|
Rx/OTC sales: 2011
|
2012
|
2014
|
2016
|
|
Sanofi
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
$48bn
|
$52bn
|
$55bn
|
$58bn
|
|
Novartis
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
$50bn
|
$50bn
|
$52bn
|
$55bn
|
|
Pfizer
|
1
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
$54bn
|
$50bn
|
$50bn
|
$52bn
|
|
GSK
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
$39bn
|
$41bn
|
$46bn
|
$51bn
|
|
Roche
|
6
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
$39bn
|
$44bn
|
$46bn
|
$49bn
|
|
Merck
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
$42bn
|
$42bn
|
$41bn
|
$43bn
|
|
J&J
|
8
|
8
|
7
|
7
|
$25bn
|
$27bn
|
$29bn
|
$32bn
|
|
AZ
|
7
|
7
|
8
|
8
|
$32bn
|
$29bn
|
$28bn
|
$26bn
|
|
Teva
|
12
|
10
|
10
|
9
|
$17bn
|
$20bn
|
$23bn
|
$24bn
|
|
Abbott*
|
9
|
9
|
9
|
10
|
$22bn
|
$24bn
|
$24bn
|
$24bn
|
*Abbott has recently announced that it will split into two separate firms - one focusing on pharma products and other on medical devices and
diagnostics
Source:
EvaluatePharma