FiercePharma | Tracy Staton
A year ago, FiercePharma published a list of drugs that missed when
stepping on the up escalator. A heel got caught, or a sleeve. Bystanders hit
the emergency stop button. For whatever reason, escalate they did not. We
called it "Top 10 Drug Launch
Disasters." It's still one of our most popular
special reports.
This year, we wanted to take a
more positive approach. So, herewith we bring you our Top 15 Drug Launch
Superstars. Some of them will be obvious to anyone who follows the pharma
business. They certainly were obvious to us. But choosing the rest was a
challenge--one we weren't exactly expecting, based on previous experience.
Turns out, as tough as it may be to identify disasters before they happen, it's
not so difficult after the fact. To go back to the escalator analogy, it's like
trying to pick Will Ferrell out of an ascending crowd when he's wearing an elf
costume and doing the splits.
The success stories, on the
other hand, are all well dressed, well groomed, purposeful individuals. They
might be walking up the moving steps to get to the top faster. They might be
walking, talking and delivering an iPad presentation at the same time, without
bumping into anyone along the way. Not nearly conspicuous enough.
So, we had to think about the
nature of a successful drug launch, and we realized that there are really
several types. There's the thoroughbred that gallops out fast and doesn't miss
a step--Regeneron ($REGN) and Bayer's Eylea, for instance. These are the easiest to identify, of course. There's the
technological breakthrough practically destined to sell well--like Roche's ($RHHBY) new Genentech-developed cancer drug Kadcyla, Vertex Pharmaceuticals' ($VRTX) cystic fibrosis treatment Kalydeco or Bristol-Myers Squibb's ($BMY) melanoma treatment Yervoy. There's the high-powered drug that's easier to take than its competitors,
whether that's the first oral multiple sclerosis drug like Novartis' ($NVS) Gilenya, or a next-gen prostate cancer pill like Zytiga or Xtandi, or a four-in-one HIV fighter
like Gilead's ($GILD) Stribild. And then there are the solid, steady builders. They're high-performing
products that start out strong and keep on growing, by dint of new indications
or simple market-share growth or both. Consider Novo Nordisk's ($NOVO) diabetes drug Victoza, J&J's ($JNJ) psoriasis drug Stelara or Novartis' cancer treatment Afinitor.
And then there are the
could-have-beens, the drugs that might be contenders--and might be on this
list--if new rivals hadn't been nipping at their heels. Exhibits A and B in
this category: Vertex's Incivek and Merck's ($MRK) Victrelis, the hepatitis C drugs greeted with such fanfare back in 2011. Now, thanks to a coming
generation of all-oral, interferon-free cocktails, physicians have put their
patients in a holding pattern, and Incivek and Victrelis are lagging.
Of course, with 15 slots, we
had to leave out some strong new drugs. Pfizer's ($PFE) targeted lung cancer treatment Xalkori marked a genuine breakthrough, and considering the small size of its very
targeted market, it has sold quite well. Roche's Zelboraf, another targeted cancer drug, quickly followed Yervoy to market, and
though it's delivering hundreds of millions for the company, it's still lagging
behind the BMS treatment--and a study combining the two against the disease was
summarily halted earlier this year. Xeljanz, which many analysts think will eventually be a big drug for Pfizer, is
still quite new, and it isn't one of the fast-out-of-the-gate thoroughbreds. We
left out Roche's new breast cancer drug Perjeta in favor of Kadcyla because of the latter's exciting armed-antibody
technology. And Boehringer Ingelheim's anticoagulant Pradaxa could easily have made the list a few months ago before its sales
growth slowed on safety worries and a second competitor appeared on the scene.
Now, we'll move on to the 15
that made the cut. They're ranked not by sales figures or percentage growth,
but by purely subjective judgment. And a note about the numbers: Sales figures
came from company releases, annual reports, and Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC) filings.
Unless otherwise noted, analyst estimates for 2018 sales came from
EvaluatePharma.