Even as many things change in the drug industry, at least one fact should
stay the same in the coming years, according to analysts
at EvaluatePharma. AbbVie's megablockbuster Humira will lead the world's
drug sales charts in 2024, according to a new report, representing a
record-breaking run that has lifted the company's fortunes along the way. After generating sales of $18.9 billion last year, Humira will turn in
$15.23 billion in 2024 sales, according to the analysts' new World Preview
2018, representing a 3% annual slip during the period. Jefferies
analysts have predicted sales for the drug will peak at $20.9 billion next
year.
Humira will still hold pharma's sales crown in that year, according to the
report, followed by Merck's Keytruda at $12.69 billion,
Celgene's Revlimid at $11.93 billion, Bristol-Myers
Squibb's Opdivo at $11.25 billion and BMS and
Pfizer's Eliquis at $10.54 billion. All told, worldwide
prescription drug sales will reach $1.2 trillion in 2024, according to the
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Humira's performance will come in part thanks to two settlements the
drugmaker has reached with biosim developers. Under agreements with
Amgen and Samsung Bioepis, biosims from those developers won't launch in the
U.S. until 2023. Both deals make it less likely another biosim player
could enter the market and challenge AbbVie's drug. Price hikes will
also play a role, as Humira's price has more than doubled over the
past 5 years.
As the analysts note, Merck's checkpoint inhibitor Keytruda will
overtake Bristol-Myers' Opdivo in the oncology space, churning ahead at 19%
annual growth through 2024. Rounding out the top 10 are Johnson & Johnson
and AbbVie's Imbruvica, Pfizer's Ibrance, Sanofi's Dupixent, Regeneron and
Bayer's Eylea and J&J's Stelara.
|
Rank
|
Drug name
|
Company name
|
Drug class
|
2018 sales
|
2024 sales
|
|
1.
|
Humira
|
AbbVie
|
Anti-TNF MAb
|
$18.92 billion
|
$15.23 billion
|
|
2.
|
Keytruda
|
Merck
|
PD-1 inhibitor
|
$3.82 billion
|
$12.69 billion
|
|
3.
|
Revlimid
|
Celgene
|
Immunomodulator
|
$8.19 billion
|
$11.93 billion
|
|
4.
|
Opdivo
|
Bristol-Myers Squibb
|
PD-1 inhibitor
|
$5.73 billion
|
$11.25 billion
|
|
5.
|
Eliquis
|
Bristol-Myers Squibb and Pfizer
|
Factor Xa inhibitor
|
$4.87 billion
|
$10.54 billion
|
|
6.
|
Imbruvica
|
AbbVie and Johnson & Johnson
|
BTK inhibitor
|
$3.2 billion
|
$9.56 billion
|
|
7.
|
Ibrance
|
Pfizer
|
CDK 4/6 inhibitor
|
$3.13 billion
|
$8.28 billion
|
|
8.
|
Dupixent
|
Sanofi
|
Anti-IL-4 and IL-13 MAb
|
$247 million
|
$8.06 billion
|
|
9.
|
Eylea
|
Regeneron and Bayer
|
VEGF inhibitor
|
$6.28 billion
|
$6.82 billion
|
|
10.
|
Stelara
|
Johnson & Johnson
|
Anti-IL-12 and IL-23 MAb
|
$4.01 billion
|
$6.47 billion
|
Source: EvaluatePharma World
Preview 2018 report, May 2018
Among drugs in the projected top 10 in 2024 global sales, Sanofi's Dupixent
turned in the lowest sales figure last year. Evaluate analysts
predict the drug will climb from $247 million in 2017 sales all the way to more
than $8 billion in 2024, an average growth rate of 64%.
Though it barely missed the top 10 spot, Gilead's HIV
drug Biktarvy is another notable newcomer. The drug didn't generate
any sales in 2017, but analysts expect it to climb to $6 billion by 2024. It's
projected to climb to the highest position in 2024 sales among 17 new launches
or projects that are still in R&D stages. The only three R&D projects
in Evaluate's top 50 2024 sales ranking are Vertex's triple-combo cystic
fibrosis drug, Biogen's aducanumab for Alzheimer's disease and Genfit's
nonalcoholic steatohepatitis drug elafibranor. The analysts predict each of
those drugs will generate more than $2.8 billion in 2024.
