By Mark Perlotto*
Thirty-nine years ago this
past June, an article appeared in BusinessWeek that offered readers what
was for its time a startling degree of foresight. Four paragraphs down, just
above their first historic mention of what they called “the paperless office,”
the authors of “The Office of the Future” passed along a prediction by George
Pake, head of Xerox’s Palo Alto Research Center:
“Pake says that in 1995 his
office will be completely different; there will be a TV-display terminal with
keyboard sitting on his desk. ‘I’ll be able to call up documents from my files
on the screen, or by pressing a button,’ he says. ‘I can get my mail or any
messages. I don’t know how much hard copy [printed paper] I’ll want in this
world.’”
Coming in a time when the
typewriter was still de rigueur in any modern office, the first part of
Pake’s prediction was far-seeing—and quite correct. The integration of
computers into office environments may seem like a self-evident development
with hindsight—but I don’t recall anyone predicting the future ubiquity of
smartphones or social media 20 years ago. So the first part of Pake’s
prediction should be considered one of the more impressive in the history of
business prophecy.