Pharmafile | Joel Levy
The year 2016 is set to see continued growth in
research and development productivity, with significant new drug launches and a
limited impact of patent expiries, according to a new report. The report claims
blockbuster drug launches will continue to set the tone in 2016, with a dozen
therapies seeking FDA approval next year. Roche is set to cement its position
as one of the most efficient drug developers by having some of the biggest
launches in 2016 – including the multiple sclerosis drug, ocrelizumab,
developed by subsidiary Genentech.
Unlike past years, patent expiries will have
minimal impact on some companies, thanks to the remaining difficulties of
bringing biosimilars to the market in the US. AbbVie’s best-selling drug,
Humira (adalimumab), will lose exclusivity in the US in 2016, but is not
forecast to lose much of its $16 billion sales, and will remain the industry’s
top seller. Despite this, investor confidence in the sector may be affected by
increased scrutiny by policymakers around drug pricing and tax avoidance
strategies, as seen with Pfizer’s recent takeover of Allergan and tax inversion
plan.
Buoyed by the Allergan deal, Pfizer will
comfortably outstrip closest rival Novartis in sales, at a forecasted $70.4
billion, compared to the latter’s $44.5 billion. Even without Allergan, the
report forecasts sales of $48.0 billion for Pfizer alone.
Also in the top 10 for anticipated 2016 sales
are Roche, Sanofi, Merck, GSK, J&J, Gilead, AbbVie and AstraZeneca. The
report notes that continued poor performance in GSK’s respiratory division, or
good news from J&J’s Imbruvica partnership with AbbVie, could see the two
swap positions.
The Pharma & Biotech 2016 Preview report
from EP Vantage says 2016 will see:
·
The
launch of 12 drug that will achieve blockbuster status by 2020
·
Pfizer
overtaking Novartis to be the industry’s biggest company by sales even without
Allergan
·
AstraZenca
slipping to the bottom of the top 10 biggest companies
·
Humira
remaining the industry’s biggest selling drug
·
Gilead
topping 2016’s biggest launches with its combination HIV drug, Genvoya
·
AbbVie
and AstraZeneca facing the biggest patent risks
·
Payer
concerns on pricing could further dampen valuations
Commenting on the findings, report author Lisa
Urquhart says: “The picture may look very rosy as the recent uptick in
productivity appears to be continuing and for many, the threat of biosimilars
is just that, and not a reality. The one fly in the ointment for the industry
could be the continued focus on pricing. Concerns around pricing from payers
and politicians have already impacted valuations and we could see a further
slide in 2016.”
In the foreword to the report, the authors
conclude that with signs of payer activism over pricing still limited,
“biopharma is still a good place to be” in 2016.