The 14 drugs most likely to top global pharma sales in 2015 and 2020

BioPharma Dive | By Sy Mukherjee

Earlier this week, BioPharma Dive reported on the 11 biggest expected drug launches to watch out for in 2015. BMS's anti-PD-1 drug Opdivo and PCSK9 cholesterol inhibitors from Sanofi and Amgen are expected to comprise some of the biggest launches in the industry and to eventually reach blockbuster status.
But there's plenty of already-approved drugs on the market right now that will likely make 2015 yet another massive year for pharma sales worldwide, according to equity analysts' projections aggregated in a big new report (gated) from EvaluatePharma. Old reliables like AbbVie's Humira and red-hot new hep C pills Sovaldi and Harvoni from Gilead Sciences are all expected to reach the upper tiers of marketing successes next year. But by 2020, several of the top 2010 products will probably fall off the list and be replaced with more recent potential blockbusters, so 14 drugs total are expected to rule the global pharma sales landscape over the next six years.
Here are the 10 meds projected to top global sales in 2015 (note: all images in this post are expandable; just click on a given chart if you have trouble reading the data):

The only recently-approved drugs that make the top 10 cut next year are Sovaldi and Harvoni. One important thing to keep in mind: Sovaldi/Harvoni sales are lumped together in this analysis, so technically, either of those two Gilead products alone would fall short of expected sales for AbbVie's anti-inflammatory Humira, the current top-selling drug in the world. But one interesting aspect of the EvalutePharma report is that it tracks how the top 2015 contenders will perform in 2020 (and vic versa). Things look a little bit different when you stretch things out over that timeframe, with old mainstays like AstraZeneca's CVD drug Crestor and Roche's cancer and RA meds Herceptin and Rituxan expected to take deep hits by the next decade:

Now, here are the 10 drugs that are expected to top sales by 2020. This list should obviously be approached with some caution. After all, who knows what breakthroughs could make their way into the biopharma scene over the next half-decade? But given currently available information, this is what the top 10 list should look like:

As you've probably noticed, four new names are expected to claw their way into the 2020 list. And if you take that same list and regress back to those drugs' 2015 sales, once again, the landscape looks very, very different:

 

But besides the new kids in the class, more than half of of 2015's top 10 are expected to stay as the biggest sellers six years out. Here's a Venn diagram highlighting which drugs are likely to fade over time, which are expected to reach the highest echelon of sales, and the six (or seven if you separate Sovaldi and Harvoni) impressive, durable therapies that make both lists:

 

 

To summarize: the exciting BMS cancer candidate Opdivo (expected to win approval next year); Biogen Idec's MS blockbuster Tecfidera; Astellas Pharma's wide-ranging prostate cancer med Xtandi; and Alexion Pharma's Soliris for the extremely rare blood disorders paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS) will rank among the new kings of pharma sales by the end of the decade (Soliris is notable for having one of the four highest profit margins in all of pharma, as is Celgene's blood cancer therapy Revlimid, which makes the top 10 list in both 2015 and 2020). As a bonus, here are the drugs that will make the biggest jumps on the global best-sellers list between 2015 and 2020, according to EvaluatePharma: Opdivo (from #249 to #4), Xtandi (from #63 to #10), Soliris (from #32 to #8), and Tecfidera (from #21 to #5).
And the most recently-launched drugs to make it to the top? In 2015: Sovaldi/Harvoni (launched 2013) and Revlimid (launched 2006). In 2020: Opdivo (expected launch 2015), Sovaldi/Harvoni (launched 2013), Tecfidera (launched 2013), and Xtandi (launched 2012).

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