Πηγή: Forbs
A convenient way to gauge pharmaceutical innovation is to look at the
percentage of a company’s sales that comes from products approved in the last 5
years. This is sometimes called the “Freshness Index”. In the last decade,
pharmaceutical companies have been more open about the sales of their leading
products, which they now routinely disclose in their financial reports. In
2012, for example, the top 13 big pharma reported the sales of 314 products,
representing 79% ($309 bn) of their pharmaceutical sales ($391 bn). Products
that were not reported were those too small to matter to investors. These sales
figures, combined with knowledge of when products were approved, make it
possible to calculate the percentage of sales coming from drugs of various
“vintages”. The results
are shown in Exhibit 1.
As can be seen, only 10% of sales from reported products ($32 bn) came from
drugs approved since 2007, and only 48% ($150 bn) from drugs approved during
the last 12 years, which approximates the effective patent life of medicines.
Paradoxically, the majority of sales from pharma’s biggest products ($159 bn)
comes from drugs approved before 2001, that are either generic, or about to
become so. This is quite unexpected, as products falling off the patent-cliff
are supposed to be quickly headed for oblivion. Perhaps this longevity is
understandable for biologics since there are few biosimilars. Indeed, 31 of the
reported products approved before 2001 are biologics, with aggregate sales of
$59 bn. That leaves $100 bn for small molecules older than 12 years. The future
of big pharma, at least in the short-term, hinges in great part on its skills
at selling generics.
The appendix below shows the 116 small molecules approved before 2001. It
makes interesting reading in defensive marketing. Some of the bigger names have
either recently become generic, or will soon do so, but many drugs survive
thanks to brand recognition, patented formulations, and other life-cycle
management tools.
Exhibit 2 shows each company’s percentage of reported sales coming from
drugs approved since 2007. Novartis leads the pack with a “Freshness Index” of 19%. This supports the view
that, in pharmaceuticals, the way to innovate is to focus on breakthroughs, not
blockbusters. This is not a new idea. George Merck stated it famously in the 1950s, and for decades, it defined the industry and underpinned its
success. Companies that strayed from it have paid a stiff price. Exhibit 2 also
shows that 6 out of the top 13 pharma draw less than 5% of their reported sales
from products 5 years or younger.
What does
this say about the future?
New drugs grow slowly. The view that they skyrocket to blockbuster status
soon after launch is not supported by the data. It typically takes 5 years or
longer to achieve such success, and many never do. There are 171 drugs in our
sample that have been launched since 2000, and only 40 (23%) became
blockbusters. Companies hoping that a surge of approvals will offset the
impending loss of their blockbusters will not likely see that result for years
during which revenues and earnings will be depressed. And only one-fourth of
the blockbuster hopefuls will live up to their promise.
Ζητήστε το στα κεντρικά
βιβλιοπωλεία ή δώστε την παραγγελία σας τώρα…